Buying toilet paper got ugly during the early part of COVID—between panic buying and hoarding, shelves were often empty. Due to tariffs, we may soon see similar scarcity for a bigger range of products, and that could include tech gear like PCs. Recently, the biggest port in the U.S. said that by next week, arriving shipments will have declined by 35 percent… and that empty shelves could soon follow in several weeks.
In an interview with TV news station KTLA, Gene Seroka, the executive director for the Port of Los Angeles, described the anticipated drop and the expectation of layoffs in adjacent industries like trucking and longshoremen.
More relevant to those of us at home, retailers who’ve spoken with Seroka gave an estimate of about five to seven remaining weeks of usual inventory. (That is, we consumers being able to walk into a store and immediately get what we need or want). After that stock runs out, Seroka predicts a rise in product prices, as well as a decrease in selection for goods. The example given: You might want to buy a blue shirt, but you’ll instead only find one among many purple ones.
Despite the current (but temporary) hold on the higher tariffs for electronics like laptops, the ongoing chaos with these taxes will still likely result in fewer options and higher prices. When I spoke with companies about the effects of tariffs, multiple sources warned of reducing the availability and variety of product lineups, along with potential price increases to cover the new levies. So if you’re on an older Windows 10 PC that can’t make the upgrade to Windows 11, you could end up in a similar situation as the above shirt example—maybe you want a budget laptop for under $500, but all that’s available are $1,200+ models.
Currently, one asset management company (Apollo Global) has sketched out a possible timeline for how fast tariffs could lead to empty shelves, as per Investor’s Business Daily. Released on April 27, their scenario has container shipments drying up by mid-May and domestic freight (transportation) by late May, with layoffs in retail and trucking beginning in mid-June. A recession could then follow in the summer.
You can get a closer look at how this grim outlook is playing out right now in tech through Gamers Nexus’s detailed three-hour video report, which contains extremely transparent interviews with multiple contacts in the industry. To best understand why companies have chosen to stop shipments to the U.S., listen to the section where Hyte discusses the numbers for its Y40 case. The interview with Louis Rossman also explains clearly the impact on small business owners. Peppered throughout the report is the repeated estimate of reduced product availability, downsizing or outright closing, and possible layoffs.
While these businesses speak more on components than on fully built PCs or laptops, the challenges posed by the tariffs apply across electronics—including moving manufacturing to the U.S. (a stated goal of these taxes). But as Seroka points out in his KTLA interview, manufacturing brought stateside won’t completely boost the job market—many tasks will be automated and performed by robots.
So ultimately, what does this mean for anyone in the market for a new PC? You have to make a choice soon about whether to replace an old machine. When asked about retailers, Seroka said that large retailers will be able to hold on to normalcy the longest, as they increased pre- and lower-tariffed shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of higher ones.
Zoshua Colah / Unsplash
Small- and medium-sized businesses haven’t been warehousing stock to the same degree, so they will have to decide sooner if they’ll bring over product based on the new pricing. But again, even major retailers aren’t expecting to hang on beyond five to seven weeks.
If you want to stretch your tech further, you do have some options. You can install Linux or, if you have a compatible machine, ChromeOS Flex. You can also buy yourself time by paying $30 to extend Windows 10’s security updates.
But no matter if you choose to replace, stretch, or extend, you should decide on a plan. Unfortunately, sitting around won’t guarantee any more stability. The potential for additional tariffs on semiconductors still looms, as an example. Currently, China says it hasn’t entered negotiations yet with the U.S. regarding the existing tariffs.
Further reading: The best laptop we’ve tested